Australian thoroughbred racing

Value Analysis

Compare calibrated model probability with timestamped market prices

——

Win value

EV = probability × decimal price − 1

Ready
  • Fair odds from calibrated probability
  • Timestamped win price and liquidity
  • Configurable minimum expected value

Place & each way

Separate stakes and settlement terms

Ready
  • Place probability uses actual paid places
  • Each-way ROI uses the full two-unit stake
  • No payout comparisons across unequal stakes

No-bet safeguards

Quality gates override apparent edge

Ready
  • Stale odds or insufficient liquidity
  • Incomplete data or weak reliability
  • Small historical sample or missing price